The Melbourne Cup is one of the biggest horse racing events in Australia and the world. Every year, thousands of people from all over the globe tune in to watch the race and cheer on their favourite horses. But how often do favourites actually win? Does the favourite ever come out on top?
In this article, we will explore the history of the Melbourne Cup and investigate how often favourites have won the race over the years. We’ll also look at some of the factors that can affect a horse’s chances of success and how to pick the next Melbourne Cup winner.
How Often Do Favourites Win?
The Melbourne Cup has been running since 1861 and since then, favourites have won the race just over 40% of the time. This means that the favourite has come in first place in 43 out of the 109 Melbourne Cups that have been held. However, this doesn’t necessarily mean that the favourite is always the winner.
In some years, the favourite has finished in second or third place or even lower. This is because there are so many factors that can affect a horse’s performance on the day, such as track conditions, the horse’s form, and the jockey’s experience.
Factors That Affect a Horse’s Chances of Winning
There are a number of factors that can affect a horse’s chances of winning the Melbourne Cup. Some of the most important ones include:
- Fitness and Form – The horse needs to be in good shape and have a recent history of good form in order to give it the best chance of success.
- Track Conditions – The track conditions on the day can have a major impact on a horse’s chances of success. A wet track can make it more difficult for the horse to run, while a dry track can give it an advantage.
- Jockey Experience – The jockey’s experience and ability can make a huge difference to a horse’s chances of winning. An experienced jockey is more likely to know how to get the best out of their horse on the day.
- Weight – The weight of the horse is also an important factor in its success. Horses carrying too much weight are more likely to tire quickly, while those carrying less weight may have more energy in the closing stages of the race.
- Barriers – The barriers that the horse starts from can also have an impact on its chances of success. A horse that starts from the inside barriers may have an advantage over those that start from the outside barriers.
How to Pick the Next Melbourne Cup Winner
Picking the next Melbourne Cup winner is no easy task, but there are some things that you can do to give yourself the best chance of success.
Do Your Research
The first step to picking the next Melbourne Cup winner is to do your research. You should look at the form of the horses and the recent performances of the jockeys. You should also consider the track conditions and the weight of the horses. This will give you an idea of which horses have the best chance of success.
Look at the Odds
The odds on a horse can tell you a lot about its chances of success. If a horse has long odds, it means that the bookmakers don’t think it has a very good chance of winning. If a horse has short odds, it means that the bookmakers think it has a good chance of success.
Follow Expert Tips
It can also be helpful to follow the tips of expert tipsters. These people have been studying and analyzing the Melbourne Cup for years, so their advice can be invaluable. Make sure to look for tipsters with a good track record.
Pay Attention to the Weather
Weather can have a big impact on the outcome of the race, so it’s important to pay attention to the weather forecast for the day of the race. If it’s going to be wet, look for horses that have performed well on wet tracks in the past. If it’s going to be dry, look for horses that have performed well on dry tracks.
Place Your Bets Early
Finally, it’s important to place your bets early. The odds on a horse can change significantly in the days leading up to the race, so if you wait too long you could end up missing out on the best odds.
Conclusion
Favourites have won the Melbourne Cup just over 40% of the time, but this doesn’t guarantee success. There are a number of factors that can affect a horse’s chances of success, such as its form, the track conditions, and the jockey’s experience.
If you want to give yourself the best chance of picking the next Melbourne Cup winner, you should do your research, look at the odds, follow expert tips, pay attention to the weather, and place your bets early. Good luck!